The book of the month: “The Long Boom: A Vision for the coming age of prosperity” by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt

News categories: the New Economy economics, enterprise and business strategy

The idea of a “New Economy”, the concept of a global world economy which – due to technological advances – will provide a unique economic opportunity for mankind in the years from 2000 – 2020 was expressed first by two of the book’s authors in a cover story of the July 1997 issue of Wired Magazine (see also Juergen Daum’s news from Oct 26, 2000: Is the New Economy / The Long Boom dead ?). With this book, the authors go now some steps further in analysing in depth past, actual and future trends which drive our world economy. Those who have already read “The Art of the Long View” from Peter Schwartz no doubt are familiar how the authors approach the analysis of the future using scenario planning techniques.

“The Long Boom” starts with the recognition that the world is faced with a historic opportunity. What the authors call the Long Boom – the years from 1980 to 2020 – is a period of remarkable global transformation. Since the 1980s, a new computer and telecommunications infrastructure has been built that significantly increases the productive capacity of the economy. Through the 1990s, Americans restructured their economy to take advantage of those technologies and to sustain high levels of economic growth. Corporations are reorganizing, essentially shifting from centralized hierarchies to flexible networks. And a veritable revolution has transformed the world of finance, bringing a hyper efficient use of capital. In addition, the end of the cold war stimulated increasing integration of what is becoming a truly global economy, as well as the emergence of many new democracies. These mega trends – technological change, economic innovation, global integration, and spreading democratisation – have picked up momentum since the early 1980s, particularly in the developed countries best positioned to take advantage of them.

The three authors believe – based on the positive experience in the United States and in parts of Europe - that this new kind of economy can work on a large scale. With the right choices and actions, this economic boom can take off on a global level, and we could be entering another couple of decades of vast economic expansion. They assume that major technological developments are coming in the next couple of decades in several major waves: after the computer and telecommunications technologies wave of today, biotechnology – that is the manipulation at the genetic and molecular level – will be the next driving technology. Then new energy technologies like the fuel cell will emerge, and finally nanotechnology, that is, manufacturing one atom at a time - will have equally profound consequences.

“The Long Boom” is a fascinating attempt to pin down the economic potential “the New Economy” holds by examining of where we've been headed for the last 20 years with a plausible forecast of where--with a bit of good fortune and tenacity--we might be going during the next 20 years. Written by Peter Schwartz, futurist and founder of the Global Business Network, a consulting firm and think tank; Peter Leyden, former managing editor of Wired magazine; and Joel Hyatt, cofounder of Hyatt Legal Services, who teaches entrepreneurship at Stanford, it is a easy-to-read and well-edited book that describes a economic opportunity before the world now. The book is highly recommended to anyone interested in economic topics and in “the New Economy” in particular.

The Long Boom: A vision for the coming age of prosperity
by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt
Paperback - 352 pages (October 2000)
Perseus Publishing; ISBN: 0738203645

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